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Thread: jdsv's 1A-6A Playoff Projections

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    Default jdsv's 1A-6A Playoff Projections

    This projection by Calpreps will stay up for posterity. All new updates will be put at the end of the thread. Enjoy, fellow playoff junkies!
    ----
    Last Updated 11:15PM on 10/17/12 - I've put the public school week 9 games back in. This does affect the cutoff, as some Chicago Illini schools are now in. The classes stay the same, as an 8A and a 4A both entered and got bumped (neat). Man oh man, this process never ends!
    ----

    This projection uses CalPreps strengths to project next week's wins - I haven't yet put any personal guesswork into it. The projection includes the games directly against out-of-state opponents, but does not include week 9 playoff points (I didn't immediately spot this affecting the qualifying teams).

    Quick Hitters:
    PP Cutoff : 38 (1 of 4 with 37 qualifies)

    Last 5 in / 5-4 teams out:
    39 Chicago (Lane)
    39 Mackinaw (Deer Creek-M.)
    38 Greenfield [G.-Northwestern Coop]
    38 Wheaton (St. Francis)
    37 Breese (Central)
    -------------------------------------
    37 Breese (Mater Dei)
    37 Hillside (Proviso West)
    37 Ashton (A.-Franklin Center)
    36 Peoria (H.S.)
    35 LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
    35 Freeburg
    34 Burlington (Central)
    33 Chicago (Orr)
    33 Shelbyville
    32 Chicago (Phillips)
    32 Chicago (King)
    31 Chicago (Hales Franciscan)
    30 Chicago (North Lawndale Charter)
    30 Darien (Hinsdale South)
    28 Chicago (Robeson)
    58 Chicago (St. Rita) : 4-5

    Projection:

    --- 8A : 2,401 smallest ---
    1 Park Ridge (Maine South)
    2 Naperville (Neuqua Valley)
    3 Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
    4 Chicago (Marist)
    5 Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
    6 Aurora (Waubonsie Valley)
    7 Palatine (H.S.)
    8 Orland Park (Sandburg)
    9 Carol Stream (Glenbard North)
    10 Hinsdale (Central)
    11 Lincolnshire (Stevenson)
    12 Schaumburg (H.S.)
    13 Chicago (Simeon)
    14 Franklin Park-Northlake (Leyden)
    15 Oak Park (O.P.-River Forest)
    16 Bolingbrook
    17 O'Fallon (H.S.)
    18 Chicago (Taft)
    19 Hoffman Estates (Conant)
    20 Winnetka (New Trier)
    21 Flossmoor (Homewood-F.)
    22 Chicago Heights (Bloom Twp.)
    23 Bartlett
    24 Chicago (Brother Rice)
    25 LaGrange (Lyons)
    26 Gurnee (Warren)
    27 Glenview (Glenbrook South)
    28 Naperville (North)
    29 Palatine (Fremd)
    30 Skokie (Niles West)
    31 Evanston (Twp.)
    32 Chicago (Lane)

    --- 7A : 1,875 ---
    1 Glen Ellyn (Glenbard West)
    2 Frankfort (Lincoln-Way East)
    3 Rockford (Boylan Catholic)
    4 Batavia
    5 Lisle (Benet Academy)
    6 Oswego (H.S.)
    7 Harvey (Thornton)
    8 Rockton (Hononegah)
    9 Northbrook (Glenbrook North)
    10 Wheaton (North)
    11 Edwardsville (H.S.)
    12 Lansing (Thornton Fractional South)
    13 New Lenox (Providence Catholic)
    14 Lake Zurich
    15 Oak Park (Fenwick)
    16 Bradley (B.-Bourbonnais)
    17 Machesney Park (Harlem)
    18 Libertyville
    19 Plainfield (North)
    20 Villa Park (Willowbrook)
    21 Huntley
    22 Crystal Lake (South)
    23 St. Charles (East)
    24 Elk Grove Village (E.G.)
    25 Normal (Community)
    26 Belleville (West)
    27 Pekin
    28 Plainfield (Central)
    29 Tinley Park (Andrew)
    30 Mt. Prospect (Prospect)
    31 Algonquin (Jacobs)
    32 Downers Grove (North)

    --- 6A : 1,315 ---
    [note the Midlothian (Bremen) & Galesburg tie]

    1 Maple Park (Kaneland)
    2 Cary (C.-Grove)
    3 Crete (C.-Monee)
    4 Ottawa (Twp.)
    5 Lake Villa (Lakes)
    6 Rock Island (H.S.)
    7 Oak Forest
    8 Grayslake (North)
    9 Lemont (H.S.)
    10 Oak Lawn (Richards)
    11 Peoria (Richwoods)
    12 Chatham (Glenwood)
    13 East St. Louis (Sr.)
    14 Crystal Lake (Central)
    15 Bloomington (H.S.)
    16 Fox Lake (Grant)
    17 Rolling Meadows
    18 Chicago (Foreman)
    19 Chicago (St. Patrick)
    20 Palos Heights (Shepard)
    21 Niles (Notre Dame)
    22 Lake Forest (H.S.)
    23 Normal (Community West)
    24 Frankfort (Lincoln-Way North)
    25 Chicago (Hyde Park)
    26 Chicago (Perspectives Charter/Leadership) [Coop]
    27 Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South)
    28 Midlothian (Bremen)
    29 Arlington Heights (St. Viator)
    30 Springfield (H.S.)
    31 Rockford (Auburn)
    32 Chicago (Morgan Park)

    --- 5A : 884 ---
    1 Woodstock (Marian)
    2 Normal (University)
    3 Jerseyville (Jersey)
    4 Centralia (H.S.)
    5 Morris
    6 Springfield (Sacred Heart-Griffin)
    7 Urbana (H.S.)
    8 Lombard (Montini)
    9 Metamora
    10 Washington
    11 Marion (H.S.)
    12 East Peoria
    13 Chicago (Westinghouse College Prep)
    14 Chicago (Payton)
    15 Elmwood Park
    16 Sycamore (H.S.)
    17 Woodstock (North)
    18 Rochelle
    19 Park Forest (Rich East)
    20 Sterling (H.S.)
    21 Mahomet (M.-Seymour)
    22 Joliet (Catholic Academy)
    23 Highland
    24 Cahokia (H.S.)
    25 Tinley Park (H.S.)
    26 Jacksonville (H.S.)
    27 Wauconda
    28 New Lenox (Lincoln-Way West)
    29 Galesburg (H.S.)
    30 Mattoon
    31 Belvidere (H.S.)
    32 Wheaton (St. Francis)

    --- 4A : 563 ---
    1 Harrisburg
    2 Rock Island (Alleman)
    3 Coal City
    4 Alton (Marquette)
    5 Greenville
    6 Rochester
    7 Olney (East Richland)
    8 Columbia
    9 Benton
    10 Chicago (VOISE Academy) [Austin Coop]
    11 Charleston
    12 Sandwich
    13 Macomb
    14 Richmond (R.-Burton)
    15 Fairbury (Prairie Central)
    16 North Chicago
    17 Chicago (Harper)
    18 Quincy (Notre Dame)
    19 Waterloo (H.S.)
    20 Chicago (Brooks)
    21 Mt. Carmel
    22 Plano
    23 Manteno
    24 Evergreen Park
    25 Peoria (Notre Dame)
    26 Bloomington (Central Catholic)
    27 Kankakee (McNamara)
    28 Chicago (Marshall)
    29 Geneseo
    30 Peotone
    31 Stillman Valley
    32 Breese (Central)

    --- 3A : 418 ---
    1 Elmwood [E.-Brimfield Coop]
    2 Sterling (Newman Central Catholic)
    3 Williamsville
    4 St. Joseph (S.J.-Ogden)
    5 Tolono (Unity)
    6 Winnebago
    7 Pleasant Plains
    8 Aurora (A. Christian)
    9 Poplar Grove (North Boone)
    10 Nokomis [Coop]
    11 Byron
    12 Farmington
    13 DuQuoin (H.S.)
    14 Peru (St. Bede)
    15 Vienna [V.-Goreville Coop]
    16 Vandalia
    17 Wilmington
    18 Monticello
    19 Anna (A.-Jonesboro)
    20 Elmhurst (Immaculate Conception)
    21 Monmouth (M.-Roseville)
    22 Sesser (S.-Valier) [Coop]
    23 Auburn
    24 Carterville
    25 Robinson
    26 Aurora (Central Catholic)
    27 Chicago (Raby)
    28 Pana (H.S.)
    29 Erie [E.-Prophetstown Coop]
    30 Staunton
    31 Champaign (St. Thomas More)
    32 Virden (North Mac)

    --- 2A : 312 ---
    1 Lanark (Eastland) [E.-Pearl City Coop]
    2 Bismarck (B.-Henning)
    3 Downs (Tri-Valley)
    4 Aledo (Mercer County)
    5 Chester
    6 Camp Point (Central) [C.-Southeastern Coop]
    7 Casey (C.-Westfield)
    8 Cerro Gordo [C.G.-Bement Coop]
    9 Clifton (Central)
    10 Carthage (Illini West)
    11 Carlinville
    12 Kewanee (Wethersfield) [Annawan-W. Coop]
    13 Beardstown
    14 Rockford (Lutheran)
    15 Tremont
    16 Amboy [A.-LaMoille Coop]
    17 Athens [Coop]
    18 Winnetka (North Shore Country Day)
    19 Taylor Ridge (Rockridge)
    20 Arthur (A.-Lovington) [Coop]
    21 Lawrenceville
    22 Watseka
    23 Havana
    24 Momence
    25 Argenta (A.-Oreana)
    26 Carmi (C.-White County)
    27 Morrison
    28 Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
    29 Johnston City
    30 Georgetown (G.-Ridge Farm) [G.R.F.-Chrisman Coop]
    31 Orion
    32 Mackinaw (Deer Creek-M.)

    --- 1A : 138 smallest ---
    1 Stockton
    2 Ottawa (Marquette)
    3 Maroa (M.-Forsyth)
    4 Carrollton
    5 LeRoy
    6 Mooseheart
    7 Concord (Triopia) [Coop]
    8 Freeport (Aquin)
    9 Moweaqua (Central A & M)
    10 Villa Grove
    11 Lena (L.-Winslow)
    12 Colfax (Ridgeview)
    13 Toulon (Stark County)
    14 Forreston
    15 Sidell (Jamaica) [Salt Fork Coop]
    16 Dupo
    17 Flanagan (F.-Cornell) [F.C.-Woodland Coop]
    18 East Dubuque
    19 Galena (H.S.)
    20 Hebron (Alden-H.) [Coop]
    21 Monmouth (United)
    22 Abingdon
    23 Winchester [West Central Coop]
    24 Oblong
    25 Toledo (Cumberland)
    26 Milford [Coop]
    27 Mt. Olive
    28 Warren
    29 Mt. Sterling (Brown County)
    30 Biggsville (West Central)
    31 Chicago (Luther North)
    32 Greenfield [G.-Northwestern Coop]
    Last edited by jdsv; 10-20-2012 at 02:51 PM.

  2. #2
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    One note : due to the arrangement of the Chicago Catholic conference(s), Hales is inside on this projection as an auto-qualifier.

    This doesn't currently affect any class but 1A (Ashton is 1A @ 204), but I expect it will as we touch things up. If anyone could steer me toward an absolute certainty of how the Chicago Catholic conference selects their representatives, I can program that in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jdsv View Post
    One note : due to the arrangement of the Chicago Catholic conference(s), Hales is inside on this projection as an auto-qualifier.

    This doesn't currently affect any class but 1A (Ashton is 1A @ 204), but I expect it will as we touch things up. If anyone could steer me toward an absolute certainty of how the Chicago Catholic conference selects their representatives, I can program that in.
    They don't. The conferences are not big enough for an automatic qualifier. Strictly record and points.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buford View Post
    They don't. The conferences are not big enough for an automatic qualifier. Strictly record and points.
    Thanks.

    I never knew how many times the 'official' IHSA scores changed, or that they have teams missing from some lists, typos leading to bad internal data, etc. It's quite frustrating!

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    Academic Silver Club - Aug 27, 2016 dcaudle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jdsv View Post
    Thanks.

    I never knew how many times the 'official' IHSA scores changed, or that they have teams missing from some lists, typos leading to bad internal data, etc. It's quite frustrating!
    They will be in anyway with a 6-3 record
    "I will never doubt Derek Leonard again"

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    I've finally completed a workfile that updates instantaneously (well.. depending on your computer, probably).

    Please DOWNLOAD the file (.xlsm if you have a new version of office) first off so you don't change the template others may use. Edit it on your computer or upload a renamed copy and try to edit it there.

    The calpreps predictions are in by default. To make your own predictions, go to the 'Week9' tab and swap any 'W's or 'L's that you choose. To go back to the default, just make sure that none are highlighted yellow.

    To override whether a team is automatically in / out / eligible, go to the 'Alpha' tab and type in the appropriate letter in the override column next to the teams you which to modify.

    >> After any changes, remember to hit 'Refresh Data' or 'Refresh All', located in 'DATA' in new versions. <<

    To access the workfile:
    Go to Google Drive - https://accounts.google.com/ServiceLogin?serv....

    User : IHSSLurker
    P/W : ihss2012


    Please don't change the password.
    Last edited by jdsv; 10-16-2012 at 10:32 PM.

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    Up next -

    You guys are all better than me at predicting scores and pairing the classes. I'll see if I can make something to speed up the process.

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    Exciting update!

    There is now a file (2012 Playoffs Grid - User.xlsm) capable of auto-generating copy/paste-ready seeded matchups (1-16 and quads) on a new tab called 'Pairings'.

    Both 1-16 'Divisions' and Quads can be specified and are produced simultaneously. If you want half to be quads and the other half 1-16, mix and match when you copy and paste (you'll see what I mean).

    This can be used to put in winners and losers of week 9 games and quickly have everything ready to polish up 1-16 / quad seeding just as the IHSA will.

    Note:
    I did go back and check against the Playoff Outlook, and after singling out each school from a non-automatic bid conference that the IHSA eliminated (some with 1 win were included and others with 3 were not...), they did match up perfectly - so I think it's solid.

    Edit: The .xls and .xlsm files should now be the same, and the .xlsx file has been put in the trash. Let me know if you encounter any problems with either!
    Last edited by jdsv; 10-16-2012 at 06:17 PM.

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    Academic Silver Club - Aug 27, 2016 dcaudle's Avatar
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    this looks awesome,will check it out tonight.
    "I will never doubt Derek Leonard again"

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    I am not even understanding his posts....Id better leave this to you dcaudle!
    My SIG was taken because I doubted dcaudle

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    Academic Silver Club - Aug 27, 2016 dcaudle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stangs4ever View Post
    I am not even understanding his posts....Id better leave this to you dcaudle!
    It's more bean counter type language
    "I will never doubt Derek Leonard again"

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    That looks very nice...I don't even want to know how long it took though!

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    Quote Originally Posted by rollinnolan05 View Post
    That looks very nice...I don't even want to know how long it took though!
    Thanks. I had some free time Saturday and Sunday nights, plus a vacation day around a dentist appointment today. It got fun, so it got done.

    Also - I just plopped random 1-16 / quad seeds in to have something there. They in no way affect reality!

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    Good Stuff jdsv
    Mater Dei Football "Building the Wall of Tradition"
    Sweet 16: 95,98,04,07,10,11,13
    Elite Eight: 92,02,09
    Final Four: 93,08,15
    Runner Up: 06
    Breese Mater Dei Football Youtube

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    An 8A team replaced a 1A team. See new projections on page 2 of this thread.

    Below is my own 4A projection.

    South goes quads:
    Macomb @ Charleston is barely over 150 mi.
    Quincy Notre Dame @ Benton is 180+ mi.

    North goes quads
    Chicago (Brooks) @ Alleman is ~153 mi. as the crow flies and 169 mi. per Google maps.
    They may decide to overlook this, so I've put the 1-16 pairings below as an FYI.

    Having each of the top four seeds in its own quad was a coincidence.

    Class 4A Pairings

    Southern Quad
    #1 (8-1) Harrisburg vs. #8 (5-4) Breese (Mater Dei)
    #2 (8-1) Olney (East Richland) vs. #7 (5-4) Breese (Central)
    #3 (8-1) Columbia vs. #6 (6-3) Mt. Carmel
    #4 (8-1) Benton vs. #5 (6-3) Waterloo (H.S.)

    Central Quad
    #1 (8-1) Alton (Marquette) vs. #8 (6-3) Bloomington (Central Catholic)
    #2 (8-1) Greenville vs. #7 (6-3) Peoria (Notre Dame)
    #3 (8-1) Rochester vs. #6 (6-3) Quincy (Notre Dame)
    #4 (8-1) Charleston vs. #5 (7-2) Macomb

    Chicago-South Quad
    #1 (8-1) Rock Island (Alleman) vs. #8 (5-4) Stillman Valley
    #2 (7-2) Sandwich vs. #7 (5-4) Geneseo
    #3 (7-2) Richmond (R.-Burton) vs. #6 (6-3) Aurora (Central Catholic)
    #4 (7-2) North Chicago vs. #5 (6-3) Plano

    Northern Quad
    #1 (8-1) Coal City vs. #8 (5-4) Chicago (Brooks)
    #2 (7-2) Fairbury (Prairie Central) vs. #7 (5-4) Peotone
    #3 (6-3) Manteno vs. #6 (6-3) Chicago (Harper)
    #4 (6-3) Evergreen Park vs. #5 (6-3) Kankakee (McNamara)


    North Division
    #1 (8-1) Rock Island (Alleman) vs. #16 (5-4) Chicago (Brooks)
    #2 (8-1) Coal City vs. #15 (5-4) Stillman Valley
    #3 (7-2) Sandwich vs. #14 (5-4) Peotone
    #4 (7-2) Richmond (R.-Burton) vs. #13 (5-4) Geneseo
    #5 (7-2) Fairbury (Prairie Central) vs. #12 (6-3) Chicago (Harper)
    #6 (7-2) North Chicago vs. #11 (6-3) Aurora (Central Catholic)
    #7 (6-3) Plano vs. #10 (6-3) Kankakee (McNamara)
    #8 (6-3) Manteno vs. #9 (6-3) Evergreen Park
    Last edited by jdsv; 10-17-2012 at 09:07 PM.

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