jdsv's 1A-6A Playoff Projections

[jdsv]

This projection by Calpreps will stay up for posterity. All new updates will be put at the end of the thread. Enjoy, fellow playoff junkies!
----
Last Updated 11:15PM on 10/17/12 - I've put the public school week 9 games back in. This does affect the cutoff, as some Chicago Illini schools are now in. The classes stay the same, as an 8A and a 4A both entered and got bumped (neat). Man oh man, this process never ends!
----

This projection uses CalPreps strengths to project next week's wins - I haven't yet put any personal guesswork into it. The projection includes the games directly against out-of-state opponents, but does not include week 9 playoff points (I didn't immediately spot this affecting the qualifying teams).

Quick Hitters:
PP Cutoff : 38 (1 of 4 with 37 qualifies)

Last 5 in / 5-4 teams out:

39 Chicago (Lane)
39 Mackinaw (Deer Creek-M.)
38 Greenfield [G.-Northwestern Coop]
38 Wheaton (St. Francis)
37 Breese (Central)
-------------------------------------
37 Breese (Mater Dei)
37 Hillside (Proviso West)
37 Ashton (A.-Franklin Center)
36 Peoria (H.S.)
35 LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
35 Freeburg
34 Burlington (Central)
33 Chicago (Orr)
33 Shelbyville
32 Chicago (Phillips)
32 Chicago (King)
31 Chicago (Hales Franciscan)
30 Chicago (North Lawndale Charter)
30 Darien (Hinsdale South)
28 Chicago (Robeson)
58 Chicago (St. Rita) : 4-5

Projection:

--- 8A : 2,401 smallest ---
1 Park Ridge (Maine South)
2 Naperville (Neuqua Valley)
3 Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
4 Chicago (Marist)
5 Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
6 Aurora (Waubonsie Valley)
7 Palatine (H.S.)
8 Orland Park (Sandburg)
9 Carol Stream (Glenbard North)
10 Hinsdale (Central)
11 Lincolnshire (Stevenson)
12 Schaumburg (H.S.)
13 Chicago (Simeon)
14 Franklin Park-Northlake (Leyden)
15 Oak Park (O.P.-River Forest)
16 Bolingbrook
17 O'Fallon (H.S.)
18 Chicago (Taft)
19 Hoffman Estates (Conant)
20 Winnetka (New Trier)
21 Flossmoor (Homewood-F.)
22 Chicago Heights (Bloom Twp.)
23 Bartlett
24 Chicago (Brother Rice)
25 LaGrange (Lyons)
26 Gurnee (Warren)
27 Glenview (Glenbrook South)
28 Naperville (North)
29 Palatine (Fremd)
30 Skokie (Niles West)
31 Evanston (Twp.)
32 Chicago (Lane)

--- 7A : 1,875 ---
1 Glen Ellyn (Glenbard West)
2 Frankfort (Lincoln-Way East)
3 Rockford (Boylan Catholic)
4 Batavia
5 Lisle (Benet Academy)
6 Oswego (H.S.)
7 Harvey (Thornton)
8 Rockton (Hononegah)
9 Northbrook (Glenbrook North)
10 Wheaton (North)
11 Edwardsville (H.S.)
12 Lansing (Thornton Fractional South)
13 New Lenox (Providence Catholic)
14 Lake Zurich
15 Oak Park (Fenwick)
16 Bradley (B.-Bourbonnais)
17 Machesney Park (Harlem)
18 Libertyville
19 Plainfield (North)
20 Villa Park (Willowbrook)
21 Huntley
22 Crystal Lake (South)
23 St. Charles (East)
24 Elk Grove Village (E.G.)
25 Normal (Community)
26 Belleville (West)
27 Pekin
28 Plainfield (Central)
29 Tinley Park (Andrew)
30 Mt. Prospect (Prospect)
31 Algonquin (Jacobs)
32 Downers Grove (North)

--- 6A : 1,315 ---
[note the Midlothian (Bremen) & Galesburg tie]

1 Maple Park (Kaneland)
2 Cary (C.-Grove)
3 Crete (C.-Monee)
4 Ottawa (Twp.)
5 Lake Villa (Lakes)
6 Rock Island (H.S.)
7 Oak Forest
8 Grayslake (North)
9 Lemont (H.S.)
10 Oak Lawn (Richards)
11 Peoria (Richwoods)
12 Chatham (Glenwood)
13 East St. Louis (Sr.)
14 Crystal Lake (Central)
15 Bloomington (H.S.)
16 Fox Lake (Grant)
17 Rolling Meadows
18 Chicago (Foreman)
19 Chicago (St. Patrick)
20 Palos Heights (Shepard)
21 Niles (Notre Dame)
22 Lake Forest (H.S.)
23 Normal (Community West)
24 Frankfort (Lincoln-Way North)
25 Chicago (Hyde Park)
26 Chicago (Perspectives Charter/Leadership) [Coop]
27 Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South)
28 Midlothian (Bremen)
29 Arlington Heights (St. Viator)
30 Springfield (H.S.)
31 Rockford (Auburn)
32 Chicago (Morgan Park)

--- 5A : 884 ---
1 Woodstock (Marian)
2 Normal (University)
3 Jerseyville (Jersey)
4 Centralia (H.S.)
5 Morris
6 Springfield (Sacred Heart-Griffin)
7 Urbana (H.S.)
8 Lombard (Montini)
9 Metamora
10 Washington
11 Marion (H.S.)
12 East Peoria
13 Chicago (Westinghouse College Prep)
14 Chicago (Payton)
15 Elmwood Park
16 Sycamore (H.S.)
17 Woodstock (North)
18 Rochelle
19 Park Forest (Rich East)
20 Sterling (H.S.)
21 Mahomet (M.-Seymour)
22 Joliet (Catholic Academy)
23 Highland
24 Cahokia (H.S.)
25 Tinley Park (H.S.)
26 Jacksonville (H.S.)
27 Wauconda
28 New Lenox (Lincoln-Way West)
29 Galesburg (H.S.)
30 Mattoon
31 Belvidere (H.S.)
32 Wheaton (St. Francis)

--- 4A : 563 ---
1 Harrisburg
2 Rock Island (Alleman)
3 Coal City
4 Alton (Marquette)
5 Greenville
6 Rochester
7 Olney (East Richland)
8 Columbia
9 Benton
10 Chicago (VOISE Academy) [Austin Coop]
11 Charleston
12 Sandwich
13 Macomb
14 Richmond (R.-Burton)
15 Fairbury (Prairie Central)
16 North Chicago
17 Chicago (Harper)
18 Quincy (Notre Dame)
19 Waterloo (H.S.)
20 Chicago (Brooks)
21 Mt. Carmel
22 Plano
23 Manteno
24 Evergreen Park
25 Peoria (Notre Dame)
26 Bloomington (Central Catholic)
27 Kankakee (McNamara)
28 Chicago (Marshall)
29 Geneseo
30 Peotone
31 Stillman Valley
32 Breese (Central)

--- 3A : 418 ---
1 Elmwood [E.-Brimfield Coop]
2 Sterling (Newman Central Catholic)
3 Williamsville
4 St. Joseph (S.J.-Ogden)
5 Tolono (Unity)
6 Winnebago
7 Pleasant Plains
8 Aurora (A. Christian)
9 Poplar Grove (North Boone)
10 Nokomis [Coop]
11 Byron
12 Farmington
13 DuQuoin (H.S.)
14 Peru (St. Bede)
15 Vienna [V.-Goreville Coop]
16 Vandalia
17 Wilmington
18 Monticello
19 Anna (A.-Jonesboro)
20 Elmhurst (Immaculate Conception)
21 Monmouth (M.-Roseville)
22 Sesser (S.-Valier) [Coop]
23 Auburn
24 Carterville
25 Robinson
26 Aurora (Central Catholic)
27 Chicago (Raby)
28 Pana (H.S.)
29 Erie [E.-Prophetstown Coop]
30 Staunton
31 Champaign (St. Thomas More)
32 Virden (North Mac)

--- 2A : 312 ---
1 Lanark (Eastland) [E.-Pearl City Coop]
2 Bismarck (B.-Henning)
3 Downs (Tri-Valley)
4 Aledo (Mercer County)
5 Chester
6 Camp Point (Central) [C.-Southeastern Coop]
7 Casey (C.-Westfield)
8 Cerro Gordo [C.G.-Bement Coop]
9 Clifton (Central)
10 Carthage (Illini West)
11 Carlinville
12 Kewanee (Wethersfield) [Annawan-W. Coop]
13 Beardstown
14 Rockford (Lutheran)
15 Tremont
16 Amboy [A.-LaMoille Coop]
17 Athens [Coop]
18 Winnetka (North Shore Country Day)
19 Taylor Ridge (Rockridge)
20 Arthur (A.-Lovington) [Coop]
21 Lawrenceville
22 Watseka
23 Havana
24 Momence
25 Argenta (A.-Oreana)
26 Carmi (C.-White County)
27 Morrison
28 Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
29 Johnston City
30 Georgetown (G.-Ridge Farm) [G.R.F.-Chrisman Coop]
31 Orion
32 Mackinaw (Deer Creek-M.)

--- 1A : 138 smallest ---
1 Stockton
2 Ottawa (Marquette)
3 Maroa (M.-Forsyth)
4 Carrollton
5 LeRoy
6 Mooseheart
7 Concord (Triopia) [Coop]
8 Freeport (Aquin)
9 Moweaqua (Central A & M)
10 Villa Grove
11 Lena (L.-Winslow)
12 Colfax (Ridgeview)
13 Toulon (Stark County)
14 Forreston
15 Sidell (Jamaica) [Salt Fork Coop]
16 Dupo
17 Flanagan (F.-Cornell) [F.C.-Woodland Coop]
18 East Dubuque
19 Galena (H.S.)
20 Hebron (Alden-H.) [Coop]
21 Monmouth (United)
22 Abingdon
23 Winchester [West Central Coop]
24 Oblong
25 Toledo (Cumberland)
26 Milford [Coop]
27 Mt. Olive
28 Warren
29 Mt. Sterling (Brown County)
30 Biggsville (West Central)
31 Chicago (Luther North)
32 Greenfield [G.-Northwestern Coop]

[jdsv]

One note : due to the arrangement of the Chicago Catholic conference(s), Hales is inside on this projection as an auto-qualifier.

This doesn't currently affect any class but 1A (Ashton is 1A @ 204), but I expect it will as we touch things up. If anyone could steer me toward an absolute certainty of how the Chicago Catholic conference selects their representatives, I can program that in.

[Buford]

Originally Posted by jdsv

One note : due to the arrangement of the Chicago Catholic conference(s), Hales is inside on this projection as an auto-qualifier.

This doesn't currently affect any class but 1A (Ashton is 1A @ 204), but I expect it will as we touch things up. If anyone could steer me toward an absolute certainty of how the Chicago Catholic conference selects their representatives, I can program that in.

They don't. The conferences are not big enough for an automatic qualifier. Strictly record and points.

[jdsv]

Originally Posted by Buford

They don't. The conferences are not big enough for an automatic qualifier. Strictly record and points.

Thanks.

I never knew how many times the 'official' IHSA scores changed, or that they have teams missing from some lists, typos leading to bad internal data, etc. It's quite frustrating!

[dcaudle]

Originally Posted by jdsv

Thanks.

I never knew how many times the 'official' IHSA scores changed, or that they have teams missing from some lists, typos leading to bad internal data, etc. It's quite frustrating!

They will be in anyway with a 6-3 record

[jdsv]

I've finally completed a workfile that updates instantaneously (well.. depending on your computer, probably).

Please DOWNLOAD the file (.xlsm if you have a new version of office) first off so you don't change the template others may use. Edit it on your computer or upload a renamed copy and try to edit it there.

The calpreps predictions are in by default. To make your own predictions, go to the 'Week9' tab and swap any 'W's or 'L's that you choose. To go back to the default, just make sure that none are highlighted yellow.

To override whether a team is automatically in / out / eligible, go to the 'Alpha' tab and type in the appropriate letter in the override column next to the teams you which to modify.

>> After any changes, remember to hit 'Refresh Data' or 'Refresh All', located in 'DATA' in new versions. <<

To access the workfile:
Go to Google Drive - https://accounts.google.com/ServiceLogin?serv....

User : IHSSLurker
P/W : ihss2012

Please don't change the password.

[jdsv]

Up next -

You guys are all better than me at predicting scores and pairing the classes. I'll see if I can make something to speed up the process.

[jdsv]

Exciting update!

There is now a file (2012 Playoffs Grid - User.xlsm) capable of auto-generating copy/paste-ready seeded matchups (1-16 and quads) on a new tab called 'Pairings'.

Both 1-16 'Divisions' and Quads can be specified and are produced simultaneously. If you want half to be quads and the other half 1-16, mix and match when you copy and paste (you'll see what I mean).

This can be used to put in winners and losers of week 9 games and quickly have everything ready to polish up 1-16 / quad seeding just as the IHSA will.

Note:
I did go back and check against the Playoff Outlook, and after singling out each school from a non-automatic bid conference that the IHSA eliminated (some with 1 win were included and others with 3 were not...), they did match up perfectly - so I think it's solid.

Edit: The .xls and .xlsm files should now be the same, and the .xlsx file has been put in the trash. Let me know if you encounter any problems with either!

[dcaudle]

this looks awesome,will check it out tonight.

[Stangs4ever]

I am not even understanding his posts....Id better leave this to you dcaudle!

[dcaudle]

Originally Posted by Stangs4ever

I am not even understanding his posts....Id better leave this to you dcaudle!

It's more bean counter type language

[rollinnolan05]

That looks very nice...I don't even want to know how long it took though!

[jdsv]

Originally Posted by rollinnolan05

That looks very nice...I don't even want to know how long it took though!

Thanks. I had some free time Saturday and Sunday nights, plus a vacation day around a dentist appointment today. It got fun, so it got done.

Also - I just plopped random 1-16 / quad seeds in to have something there. They in no way affect reality!

[Joker-25]

Good Stuff jdsv

[jdsv]

An 8A team replaced a 1A team. See new projections on page 2 of this thread.

Below is my own 4A projection.

South goes quads:
Macomb @ Charleston is barely over 150 mi.
Quincy Notre Dame @ Benton is 180+ mi.

North goes quads
Chicago (Brooks) @ Alleman is ~153 mi. as the crow flies and 169 mi. per Google maps.
They may decide to overlook this, so I've put the 1-16 pairings below as an FYI.

Having each of the top four seeds in its own quad was a coincidence.

Class 4A Pairings

Southern Quad
#1 (8-1) Harrisburg vs. #8 (5-4) Breese (Mater Dei)
#2 (8-1) Olney (East Richland) vs. #7 (5-4) Breese (Central)
#3 (8-1) Columbia vs. #6 (6-3) Mt. Carmel
#4 (8-1) Benton vs. #5 (6-3) Waterloo (H.S.)

Central Quad
#1 (8-1) Alton (Marquette) vs. #8 (6-3) Bloomington (Central Catholic)
#2 (8-1) Greenville vs. #7 (6-3) Peoria (Notre Dame)
#3 (8-1) Rochester vs. #6 (6-3) Quincy (Notre Dame)
#4 (8-1) Charleston vs. #5 (7-2) Macomb

Chicago-South Quad
#1 (8-1) Rock Island (Alleman) vs. #8 (5-4) Stillman Valley
#2 (7-2) Sandwich vs. #7 (5-4) Geneseo
#3 (7-2) Richmond (R.-Burton) vs. #6 (6-3) Aurora (Central Catholic)
#4 (7-2) North Chicago vs. #5 (6-3) Plano

Northern Quad
#1 (8-1) Coal City vs. #8 (5-4) Chicago (Brooks)
#2 (7-2) Fairbury (Prairie Central) vs. #7 (5-4) Peotone
#3 (6-3) Manteno vs. #6 (6-3) Chicago (Harper)
#4 (6-3) Evergreen Park vs. #5 (6-3) Kankakee (McNamara)


North Division
#1 (8-1) Rock Island (Alleman) vs. #16 (5-4) Chicago (Brooks)
#2 (8-1) Coal City vs. #15 (5-4) Stillman Valley
#3 (7-2) Sandwich vs. #14 (5-4) Peotone
#4 (7-2) Richmond (R.-Burton) vs. #13 (5-4) Geneseo
#5 (7-2) Fairbury (Prairie Central) vs. #12 (6-3) Chicago (Harper)
#6 (7-2) North Chicago vs. #11 (6-3) Aurora (Central Catholic)
#7 (6-3) Plano vs. #10 (6-3) Kankakee (McNamara)
#8 (6-3) Manteno vs. #9 (6-3) Evergreen Park